- The Taper, Nick Rowe, Quantitative Easing, and Intellectual Coordination Failures: Wednesday Focus for August 27, 2014 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
- Tykhe's Nonexistent Urn and Senate Election Probabilities: Over at Equitable Growth: Philosophy of Probability III: the Philosophizing: Tuesday Focus for August 26, 2014 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
- Afternoon Must-Read: Daniel Kuehn: Yes, Acemoglu and Robinson's Piketty Review Is Strange - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
- Afternoon Must Read: Matthew Klein: Jae Song and Till von Wachter on Long-Term Unemployment and Hysteresis - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
- Lunchtime Must-Read: Jonathan Chait: Dreamers Have Destroyed GOP Immigration Strategy - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
- Yet More Things You Absolutely Must Read... - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
- Evening Must-Read: David Kotok: Deflation Fears - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
- Moving the (Corrected) Calculations from Last Week's Shiller Stock Market Posts into R...: Afternoon Note - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
- Morning Must-Read: Greg Sargent: GOP’s Obamacare Repeal Follies Continue - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
- An Interesting Ad-Lib from ECB Head Mario Draghi's Jackson Hole Speech: Morning Comment - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
Must- and Shall-Reads:
- Matthew Yglesias: 38 maps that explain the global economy
- Amitabh Chandra et al.: Who Ordered That?: The Economics of Treatment Choices in Medical Care
- Erwin Chemerinsky: How the Supreme Court Protects Bad Cops
- Chang-Tai Hsieh and Enrico Moretti: Growth in Cities and Countries
- Martin Wolf: Opportunist shareholders must embrace commitment
Greg Sargent: GOP’s Obamacare repeal follies continue: "One of the most amusing subplots of the 2014 elections has been the endless and frequently comic struggles of GOP Senate candidates to articulate their position on Medicaid.... Iowa Senate candidate Joni Ernst... says people on Medicaid should should be allowed to keep it.... And yet she proudly touted her vote against Iowa’s Medicaid expansion and continues to be a gung-ho advocate for repealing Obamacare, which would roll back funding for the expansion.... Ernst’s repeal stance would mean all those people lose their coverage. Does she no longer think that should happen?.... Tom Cotton in Arkansas once again refused to say this week whether his repeal stance means he would roll back his state’s version of the Medicaid expansion.... Terri Lynn Land in Michigan has also refused to clarify her position on this.... Commentators are not telling the full story of how the politics of Obamacare are really playing out.... At this point [candidates] are largely attacking the word 'Obamacare' while reassuring swing voters they support its general goals, without saying how they would accomplish those goals..."
David Kotok: Deflation Fears: "1. United States 10-Year Treasury Yield, 2.4% 2. Germany 10-Yield Bund Yield, under 1%. 3. Japanese 10-Year JGB Yield, under 0.5%. 4. France 10-Year Government Bond Yield, 1.3%. 5. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield, 2%. 6. United Kingdom 10-Year Government Bond Yield, 2.5%. 7. Mexico 10-Year Government Bond Yield, 3.2%. 8. Italy 10-Year Government Bond Yield, 2.4%..."
Jonathan Chait: Dreamers Have Destroyed GOP Immigration Strategy: "After the 2012 election, Marco Rubio tried to craft himself as the leader of a pro-immigration-reform Republican Party. That effort has capsized, pulling Rubio’s standing with conservatives down along with it. Now Rubio is refashioning himself as the leader of a restrictionist Republican Party.... The newest iteration of Rubio is the opposite of the figure he and party leaders envisioned last year. The transformation ought to terrify them.... Of course, the 2016 campaign has hardly begun.... The trouble for Republicans is that the political theater created by the Dreamers is not going to stop. They can try their best to control officially sanctioned media debates, but the Dreamers are staging debates without permission, endlessly highlighting the cruelty of the Republican stance. It is a strategy for which the Republicans so far have no answer. The symbolic denouement of Rubio’s immigration debacle may well be an angry old man brandishing his cane at young Dreamers.
Matthew Klein: This time is different, long-term unemployment edition: "Jae Song and Till von Wachter... the impact of the most recent recession on long-term unemployment was not actually that unusual given the number of jobs lost at the outset. The paper also presents some encouraging evidence that many of those who appear to have given up hope of finding a job could rejoin the labour force if the economy keeps expanding, as well as sobering demonstrations of the permanent costs of being laid off.... Long-term non-employment in the immediate aftermath of the Great Recession was not much worse than it was in the early 1980s for most cohorts, with the notable exception of young men.... As the paper puts it: 'There is no evidence that the rate of exit from long term nonemployment has slowed during the Great Recession compared to the patterns in all episodes since the 1990s.' But this is not all good news... 'five to ten years after the Great Recession the employment population ratio would be predicted to be 1 to 2 percentage points lower than it was before the recession.'..."
Jay Rosen: Features and details of the personal franchise model in digital journalism, with 11 ex. Grantland, Bill Simmons, ESPN. Five thirty eight, Nate Silver, ESPN. xoJane, Jane Pratt, Say Media. GigaOm, Om Malik, independent. Talking Points Memo, Josh Marshall, independent. Daily Dish, Andrew Sullivan, independent. Recode.net, Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher, independent. Tech Dirt, Mike Masnick, independent. Project X, Ezra Klein, Vox Media. The Information, Jessica Lessin, independent"
Daniel Kuehn: Yes, Acemoglu and Robinson's review of Piketty is very strange: "I just happened to get to one of the parts in Piketty that Acemoglu and Robinson quote to show that Piketty doesn't think institutions matter (from page 365): 'The fundamental inequality r > g can explain the very high level of capital inequality observed in the nineteenth century, and thus in a sense the failure of the French revolution.... The formal nature of the regime was of little moment compared with the inequality r > g.' So what is in that ellipses? [Piketty] explains that the revolution didn't change the course of inequality (relative to monarchical Britain) because the new institutions that were established were much closer to Britain than popular perception in France at the time suggested! It was NOT a big change in institutions, which was why the French revolution did not shift the parameters.... Immediately after this he goes on to discuss changes in institutions in the 20th century that WERE substantial enough to impact inequality.... In other words, the real point of this section is that institutions matter a lot.... And not only did A&R get that wrong--they deliberately removed the portion of the quote where he made the point.... All of the explanations for the empirical changes in the distribution over time are either (1) institutions, or (2) shocks.... Apparently it's not just Acemoglu and Robinson that missed this memo.... Piketty without institutions in the capital share of income section could probably survive. Piketty without institutions in the inequality section of the book simply wouldn't exist any more.... This is like saying Milton Friedman wasn't all that concerned with money!"
John Cole: Bitter Irony: "Here’s the facebook page of Charles Vacca, the range instructor who was killed by a 9 year old with an UZI that we mentioned earlier. Here are some of the pictures he posted to Facebook..."