Over at Equitable Growth: It is always instructive to look at the materials that the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee pumps out, especially their semi-anonymized (hi, Charlie Evans, with your 3% longer-run value) estimates of what the appropriate federal funds rate would be.
Thus we can see, comparing January 2012 when the Federal Reserve began publishing its dot-plots to today, the Federal Reserve collectively and slowly come to recognize current reality. Back at the start of 2012 the FOMC participants all thought that in the "longer run"--which at the beginning of 2012 I take to be next year, 2016--the federal funds rate ought to be back at its normal mid-expansion level, which they all took to be in the 3.75%-4.5% per year range. Today, of course, only one participant (Charles Plosser?) still thinks the federal funds rate ought to be in that range next year, and at the very bottom of it. READ MOAR
I would like to thank President Williams for his kind introduction and the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco for inviting me to what promises to be a very stimulating and important conference.
As you know, last week the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) changed its forward guidance pertaining to the federal funds rate. With continued improvement in economic conditions, an increase in the target range for that rate may well be warranted later this year. Of course, the timing of the first increase in the federal funds rate and its subsequent path will be determined by the Committee in light of incoming data on labor market conditions, inflation, and other aspects of the current expansion.
@agolis: Notice the way it subtly precludes the possibility that anything 'divisive' or 'ideological' could be in the state or local interest. And the way that it broadly grants the idea that Schumer's advocacy on behalf of business interests is in the state and local interest.
@michaelbd: @agolis Spoken like a really divisive ideologue who hates New York, Andrew.
@michaelbd: @agolis What’s good For Wall Street is good. Finis. Anyone who disagrees is probably some nobody from upstate.
@agolis; @michaelbd and nothing worth doing is ever something people intensely disagree about.
@root_e: @agolis @msbellows NYTimes is into the consensus of people who buy or sell $10M and up condos.
@agolis: @jmartNYT @michaelbd there are so many intense value judgments baked into that. why not say 'Schumer has cannily maintained broad support w an econ agenda amenable to Wall St & Main St biz interests'?
...It's weird, almost as if writers purposely avoided the topic. There is a rich record of coins, civic and private monuments, and inscriptions.... Most of the scholarship on Trajan is done by archaeologists and others with a strong, non-textual orientation.... Neither Suetonius nor Tacitus treated Trajan's rule explicitly. Book 10 of Pliny's Letters has a complicated textual history, and it's unclear exactly how we are to understand its relationship to Books 1-9 (or, even, when it became attached to Books 1-9). Trajan is surprisingly absent from Pliny's letters otherwise....
...The bearing of the foregoing theory on the first of these is obvious. But there are also two important respects in which it is relevant to the second.... The removal of very great disparities of wealth and income... through... direct taxation... [is] deterred by... the fear of making skilful evasions too much worth while... of diminishing unduly the motive towards risk-taking, but mainly, I think, by the belief that the growth of capital depends upon the strength of the motive towards individual saving, and that for a large proportion of this growth we are dependent on the savings of the rich out of their superfluity.
NEW YORK, Tuesday—I saw a bluebird and a robin yesterday! It is not as warm here and spring is not as far along as in Washington. Still, the feel of it is in the air, and there is a fresh, green look about the shoots that are poking their heads above ground which makes you want to settle down in the country and have nothing whatsoever to do with bricks and mortar for a long while. But bricks and mortar exist and engagements go on, and people concentrate in big cities, so here I am in New York, where at 1 o'clock I go to the Cosmopolitan Club to speak at one of their membership lunches.
J.W. Mason: The Call Is Coming from Inside the House: "Economists don’t listen to themselves.... Liberal economists like Krugman who want the state to take a more active role in managing the economy continue to teach an economic theory that has no place for activist policy...
...One of Krugman’s bugaboos is the persistence of claims that expansionary monetary policy must lead to higher inflation.... As an empirical matter, of course, Krugman is right. But where could someone have gotten this idea that an increase in the money supply must always lead to higher inflation? Perhaps from an undergraduate economics class? Very possibly--if that class used Krugman’s textbook.
...is mainly due to the way in which the marginal efficiency of capital fluctuates.... By a cyclical movement we mean that as the system progresses in, e.g., the upward direction, the forces propelling it upwards at first gather force and have a cumulative effect on one another but gradually lose their strength until at a certain point they tend to be replaced by forces operating in the opposite direction... until they too, having reached their maximum development, wane and give place to their opposite.... [And] the substitution of a downward for an upward tendency often takes place suddenly and violently, whereas there is, as a rule, no such sharp turning-point when an upward is substituted for a downward tendency....
Live from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: The first day in months when San Francisco feels like San Francisco rather than like San Diego! The Fog City climate has its definite charms--especially if there are sufficient outside propane heaters so one can sit outside and watch the fog billow about one...
Evening Must-Read: Michael Strain: How to Cut Taxes and Help the Poor: "Many tax expenditures are obscure. But several are familiar to large swaths of Americans, including the mortgage-interest deduction....
Laura Ingalls Wilder: February 18, 1911: "Conditions have changed so much in the country within the last few years that we country women have no need to envy our sisters in the city...
...We women on the farm no longer expect to work as our grandmothers did. With the high prices to be had for all kinds of timber and wood we now do not have to burn wood to save the expense of fuel, but can have our oil stove, which makes the work so much cooler in the summer, so much lighter and cleaner. There need be no carrying in of wood and carrying out of ashes, with the attendant dirt, dust and disorder.
At 18:00 on 16 March (25 days after the landings), the 5th Marine Division still faced Kuribayashi's stronghold in a gorge 640 m (700 yd) long at the northwestern end of the island. On 21 March, the Marines destroyed the command post in the gorge with four tons of explosives and on 24 March, Marines sealed the remaining caves at the northern tip of the island.